Romania’s gas-fuelled climate plan lacks green ambition

The country still plans on significantly expanding gas infrastructure and consumption while relying on the rollout of hydrogen to reduce carbon emissions. And although the revised target for renewables has increased from the 2023 draft, it still falls short of the EU’s legally binding target. 

As part of the European Climate Law and the Fit for 55 package, the EU has set targets of achieving at least a 42.5 per cent share of renewable energy from its final energy consumption and a 55 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Member States are expected to detail in their NECPs exactly how they will meet these new targets.  

Romania steps on the gas 

Regrettably, Romania’s revised NECP lacks the ambition needed to meet these targets, setting a feeble renewable target of just 38 per cent, well below the EU’s legally binding target of 41 per cent. Meanwhile, the plan calls for an additional 500 megawatts (MW) of gas capacity compared to the draft version, bringing the total projected new gas capacity to at least 3 gigawatts (GW). In reality, however, Romania’s plans are even more extensive, with over 5 GW of gas-based electricity in the pipeline, according to Beyond Fossil Fuels.  

Although the country has committed to phasing out coal by 2032, the NECP shows that most of this capacity will be replaced by gas, completely at odds with the agreement made at COP28 to transition away from fossil fuels. In fact, the NECP doesn’t even account for this new gas capacity, as gas consumption in 2030 is still projected to be similar to 2020 levels.  

Transgaz, Romania’s national gas operator, forecasts a doubling of consumption to 20 billion cubic metres by 2030 due to new projects, which include expanded gas pipelines, power plants, Black Sea gas extraction, and an LNG terminal. All this new infrastructure threatens to lock Romania into fossil-fuel dependence well beyond 2030, making greenhouse gas emissions increasingly difficult to curb.  

Although the NECP doesn’t plan for a complete phase-out of fossil fuels, it does envisage that, starting in 2036, all fossil gas plants will shift to using at least 50 per cent renewable and low-carbon gases, which will supposedly lead to additional renewable capacity and a reduction in emissions. However, achieving this transition remains highly uncertain. 

Gambling on hydrogen 

This plan is problematic for several reasons. First, it’s highly unlikely that enough renewable hydrogen and biogas will be available by 2036 to satisfy demand, especially if all planned power plants are built. Recent EU-level reports illustrate this point. In February 2024, the European Commission published an impact assessment outlining a recommended 2040 climate target for the EU, assuming total production of just over 3 million tonnes of hydrogen by the end of the decade, far below the EU’s hydrogen strategy and REPowerEU target of 10 million tonnes. Similarly, a July 2024 report by the European Court of Auditors raised doubts about the EU’s hydrogen production and import targets for 2030, finding them unrealistic and overly ambitious.  

Second, it’s not clear if the remaining fossil gas will be replaced, since the NECP indicates that fossil gas use will only be halved from current levels by 2050. Realistically, the future availability of renewable hydrogen and sustainably produced biogas will be limited, while renewable hydrogen will remain significantly more expensive than fossil fuels for decades to come. Therefore, renewable hydrogen should be prioritised for hard-to-abate sectors like chemical production, steel and iron, where direct electrification has yet to become technically or economically feasible.  

Hydrogen production is notoriously inefficient, and significant energy losses occur when converting renewable electricity to hydrogen and back. This further underscores the need for direct electrification, especially in the power sector. Unfortunately, the NECP fails to grasp the importance of this approach, both in terms of renewable energy targets for 2030 and its plans to significantly increase gas-based electricity production.   

A not-so-green future 

For now, the Romanian government’s strategy is to expand gas infrastructure on a large scale, which will make the transition away from planet-heating fuels more expensive and challenging. And while the NECP contains some measures likely to improve the renewable sector, such as adding production capacity, storage, and heat pumps, progress is still far too slow. Indeed, a recent Greenpeace analysis of the NECP shows that the government plans to allocate EUR 13 billion each to both renewable infrastructure and fossil gas, completely undermining the EU’s climate ambitions.  

To bring about an equitable and realistic energy transition, Romania must invest far more in renewable energy, grid infrastructure, and flexibility, while supporting vulnerable consumers impacted by rising fossil-fuel prices. Most importantly, the government must gradually reduce fossil-fuel subsidies, as recommended by the European Commission. 

Romania’s NECP falls short of the EU’s climate ambitions and places the country on a path towards prolonged fossil-fuel dependence. By setting a renewable target below the EU’s legally binding requirement and dedicating substantial resources to gas infrastructure, Romania risks delaying its energy transformation. This could hinder progress towards meeting the EU’s targets and strain its capacity to meet future climate commitments. The European Commission should carefully analyse the country’s proposal and ensure this scenario doesn’t come to pass.