During much of the past 13 months – the longest streak of record-breaking global temperatures – EU governments have been revising their climate strategies. Yet, instead of increasing ambition at a time of a climate emergency, as they have committed to do, policymakers in central and eastern Europe appear keen to sustain their countries’ addiction to fossil gas.
Johanna Kuld, International public finance campaigner | 16 July 2024
Photo: Ljupco Smokovski, Adobe Stock
National energy and climate plans (NECPs) are a key part of the EU’s strategy for meeting its 2030 climate goals. EU Member States are in the process of updating these plans to reflect the increased ambition of EU climate targets. Yet according to a Bankwatch report released late last month, despite the urgent need for climate action that requires a rapid decline in the use of fossil fuels, the freshly updated draft NECPs reveal that Member States are still betting on gas in central and eastern Europe (CEE). In their current form, these NECPs effectively undermine the EU’s climate and energy goals and perpetuate dependence on a mainly imported, volatile and destructive fossil fuel.
These plans, initially submitted by EU Member States in 2019 and currently under revision, are meant to lay out each country’s pathway to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 55 per cent by 2030, with the ultimate goal of reaching climate neutrality by 2050. However, even the European Commission’s own assessment revealed that the draft updated NECPs submitted in 2023 fall short of the EU’s green transition targets. The Commission identified the existing gap in ambitions versus actions, including the lack of action by countries on ending fossil fuels subsidies. But the Commission’s assessment failed to point out that these plans are missing a key component – a commitment to phase out fossil gas, irrespective of its source.
Europe’s continued reliance on fossil fuels, mainly via imports, has the EU’s climate and energy security ambitions in a chokehold. In the context of the European Commission’s REPowerEU plan, sparked by Russia’s weaponisation of its fossil fuels exports, the EU managed to cut its share of Russian gas from over 40 per cent in 2021 to about 15 per cent in 2023. Among other reasons, this is the result of the EU’s success in reducing gas consumption across the bloc by 18 per cent on average. However, a full implementation of the measures in the REPowerEU plan has the potential not only to stop Russian imports but to reduce overall gas consumption 52 per cent by 2030 – a path not reflected in the NECPs, which are full of contradictory gas investments.
Betting on gas
Bankwatch’s analysis of the NECPs of eight central and eastern European countries – the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Poland – shows that none of them is considering ending fossil fuels subsidies or phasing out fossil gas. On the contrary, their plans include massive investments in gas infrastructure: expanding gas transmission and distribution systems and building new gas power plants and liquified gas (LNG) terminals. Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Romania are even planning to invest in new gas extraction.
Many of these investments could be financed by public money, which governments could instead use to fund badly needed investments in the energy transition such as electricity grid development or building renovation programmes. It also perpetuates the region dependency on fossil fuels.
Plan versus reality
A few governments’ climate plans include proposals that blatantly call into question the credibility of their predicted emissions reduction scenarios. For example, Hungary’s most ambitious scenario foresees fossil gas use decreasing by 2030 compared to 2019 levels. At the same time, the Hungarian government’s planned investments in gas power plants, pipelines and shale gas extraction would indicate a definite increase in carbon emissions.
The situation is similar for Romania, where the government’s most ambitious emissions reduction scenario suggests a similar level of gas consumption by 2030 compared to current levels, although the country is investing in new gas extraction, gas power plants, combined heat and power plants, pipelines and an LNG terminal. Romania’s government has allocated at least EUR 1.7 billion of EU money to fund these gas investments and is moving forward with the controversial Neptun Deep gas extraction project in the Black Sea.
Time to plan for fossil gas phase-out
These controversies and the long lists of gas investments highlight a critical oversight: the NECPs lack clear, actionable plans to stop fossil fuels subsidies and reduce fossil gas consumption, as well as an overall aim to phase out fossil gas irrespective of its source. Without such plans, the EU’s climate goals will stay out of reach while the EU’s energy security will continue to depend on global power shifts and on authoritarian regimes.
EU governments must scrap the outdated but easier short-term solutions – such as plans to build new gas power plants, LNG terminals and any other infrastructure that continues fossil fuel reliance – and focus exclusively on what is demanding but crucial in the long term, such as designing flexible, clean power and energy systems and ramping up energy efficiency. The NECPs should follow this direction to fulfil their role in delivering meaningful and cohesive climate policy across Europe. Amid escalating climate disasters, the EU and its Member States, as some of the worst emitters in global history, have a collective responsibility to move away from fossil fuels if humanity is to secure a livable future.
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