Turnu Măgurele – Nikopol Hydraulic Structures Assembly on the Danube river, Romania and Bulgaria

Read the full briefing produced by WWF and Bankwatch at this link.

On 24 July 2024, the European Commission announced that three additional projects had obtained the status required to be included in the List of Renewable Energy Cross-border Projects (CB RES list) under the Connecting Europe Facility for Energy (CEF Energy). Among these is a proposed hydropower investment downstream of the Romanian town of Turnu Măgurele and the Bulgarian town of Nikopol on the undammed Lower Danube. 

The project envisions the construction of a long dam on the Danube with twin run-of-the-river hydropower plants, one in Romania and one in Bulgaria, connected to their respective national transmission grids. Тhe project concept stems from the 1980s and has since then been hotly debated because of its anticipated high costs and negative impacts. 

If neither the European Parliament nor the Council objects, the official CB RES status will make the project eligible for financial support for studies and works under the CEF Energy Programme. This status offers the project higher visibility, increased investor confidence, and stronger support from Member States.

Over 100 cities and villages are likely to face flooding risks of houses, farmland, and fish ponds, requiring potentially significant resettlement efforts for thousands of people. The project foresees additional dykes and pumping stations, but these would not protect the houses, permanently below the water level of the reservoir, particularly in an era of increasing climate chaos. 

The maintenance of a high groundwater head year-round at 1 to 8 metres above the natural state is also expected to lead to soil salinisation, adversely affecting agriculture.

The proposed hydropower project threatens to submerge ports and harbours in the 280 km long stretch that will be flooded in Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia, making many of these locations unusable. 

It is also likely to exacerbate sediment deficits and river bed erosion stemming from the existing Iron Gates I and II hydropower plants upstream. Furthermore, the project is expected to destabilise the Bulgarian bank of the Danube River and activate landslides. 

Other impacts are likely and need to be further investigated. These include a drop in commercial fisheries, costly risk mitigation measures for the Kozloduy and Cernavodă nuclear power plants, and reduced energy production at the Iron Gates II hydropower plants (one scientific paper estimating a loss of 480 GWh per year).

The Danube is unique within the EU for maintaining reproducing sturgeon populations. The four remaining sturgeon species, beluga (Huso huso), Russian sturgeon (Acipenser gueldenstaedtii), stellate sturgeon (A. stellatus) and sterlet (A. ruthenus), are protected under the EU Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC) and are considered at high risk of extinction by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

The proposed project would create a barrier to the migration of sturgeons and other fish species, critically impacting their ability to reach spawning sites. This would severely threaten the survival of these species, despite ongoing conservation efforts supported by substantial public funding. 

Today, sturgeons benefit from 863 river kilometres of unobstructed river from the Black Sea to the first obstacle on the Danube, the Iron Gate II dams. The project’s fish passage solutions are unlikely to mitigate these impacts effectively, as the reservoir will submerge the existing spawning sites.

Additionally, the project would destroy the nests of white-tailed eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla), other birds of prey, black stork (Ciconia nigra), herons, egrets, and cormorants. Its sandbanks provide nesting habitat for the little tern (Sternula albifrons), common tern (Sterna hirundo), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), little ringed plover (Charadrius dubius), and several other rare bird species.

The proposed reservoir will submerge most of the natural habitats along the Danube and radically alter the ecosystem. The new hydropower plant would also severely change the downstream flow regime. The anticipated impacts on protected habitats along the Lower Danube and in the Danube Delta will range from altered water level fluctuations, temperature changes and, most importantly, a severe impact on the sediment balance.

The Romanian Danube sector includes 34 Natura 2000 sites. In addition, there are eight nature reserves of national interest, including a natural park, and seven nature reserves of international interest, in particular Ramsar sites. 

On the Bulgarian side, twelve protected natural areas of national interest, including five Nature Reserves and a Natural Park, are at risk. They overlap with 15 Natura 2000 sites protected under the EU Habitats Directive. Among them are Persina Nature Park and the largest Bulgarian RAMSAR site, the Belene Islands Complex, where from 2002 to 2008, a World Bank project restored the first Bulgarian Danube floodplain wetland with a budget of USD 13 million.

Where the Danube River transforms into the Danube Delta, it becomes Europe’s largest natural wetland, home to extraordinary biodiversity. Any changes to the Danube’s flow or sediment balance would have serious consequences for this unique area.

All 55 Danube islands in the 280 km section mapped under the EU-funded WILDislands Project will be severely impacted or destroyed by the proposed project; 28 are category A – wild islands.

The project will further impair the Danube’s natural processes, like sediment transportation and water flow variability, which are crucial for maintaining ecological health, and will lead to further deterioration of water quality. This would be in violation of the Danube River Basin Management Plan (DRBMP). 

The project will prevent a long list of habitats and species covered by the EU Habitats and Bird Directives from reaching or maintaining good conservation status as required and is in obvious contradiction to the objectives of the Nature Restoration Law.

The proposed Turnu Măgurele – Nikopol project poses a significant conflict with the obligations and objectives set forth by the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). It would lead to the destruction and fragmentation of critical habitats, threatening the survival of numerous species, including those already identified as endangered or vulnerable. This directly contravenes Article 8 of the CBD. It also undermines efforts to reduce the loss rate of all natural habitats and fails to align with the Ecosystem Approach promoted by the CBD, which emphasises the need to manage natural resources in ways that do not compromise the ecosystem services they provide.

Several wetlands of international importance would be either partially submerged (Belene Islands Complex, Confluence of the Olt with the Danube) or impacted downstream from the dam (Srebarna Reserve, Danube Delta) thus violating the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands. 

Many conservation initiatives financed by public money from EU and national sources or private donors would be made meaningless, including We Pass 1 and We Pass 2 projects, several Interreg Danube Region Programme and LIFE projects for sturgeon conservation – initiatives like the Danube Sturgeon Task Force, Restore our Ocean and Waters, LIFE-Boat 4 Sturgeon).

In 1974, the estimated cost of the Bulgarian section alone was over USD 750 million (roughly 2.5 billion EUR inflation-adjusted in 2024). Approximately half of this amount was earmarked for the construction of protective dykes, grout curtains and drainage structures. A 1986 report by Angel Balevsky, Chairman of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BAS) found that the project was inefficient and costly and the projected payback period for the investment was 65 years.

Compared to wind and solar, electricity from hydropower is more expensive, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency’s latest report. Run-of-the-river technology is also particularly weather-dependent. The frequency and intensity of low water levels on the Danube are increasing, and with the acceleration of climate change are expected to be increased further, most likely lowering the planned capacity factor.

Significantly better environmental options are available for generating electricity without compromising the Lower Danube’s ecological health. Renewable energy sources such as solar and wind offer viable alternatives that do not pose the same level of environmental risk and do not impact critical water bodies. The Water Framework Directive allows derogations only if no better options exist and all mitigation measures are in place.